Looking at the recent Canadian real estate market In the case of Toronto and Vancouver, Now that housing prices are continuously falling, Transactions aren't going well, "The market is dead," they said. You can feel it.
Actually, if you look at the statistics this region is experiencing a sharp decline what is being seen is true.
Especially, Toronto, Ontario, Canada if you take a closer look at the new housing market, you can see that the market is very volatile.
According to a recent announcement by the Altus Group, Sold in GTA during the month of August 2025 there were only 300 newly built houses, this is a 42% decrease compared to last year, and compared to the 10-year average, this is a decrease of nearly 60-90%.
The condo market is in a 'near standstill' state it is being illuminated.
- Only 118 condos and townhouses were sold in August 2025
- 59% decrease compared to the previous year
- A whopping 90% drop compared to the 10-year average
- The pre-construction condo market that Toronto investors have favored in recent years it can be considered virtually paralyzed
In this regard, Altus Group although the start of new projects is at a historically low level, "At the same time, the completed volume of existing pre-sale housing reached an all-time high," they said.
Due to this reduced employment in the construction industry → to the economy as a whole it was pointed out that the shock could continue.
Also, GTA's largest construction development association BILD (Building Industry and Land Development Association) saying that "the new housing market has virtually come to a standstill." They are calling for government intervention.
- Federal/State Government: GST (Goods and Services Tax) exemption for new homes under $1 million
- Local governments: Reduction of various development charges and fees requesting the back, etc.
Warnings from market experts are also being seen.
The interesting thing is, despite the sharp drop in sales prices are still at a high level it means that it is being maintained.
- GTA New Detached House Benchmark Price: Approximately 1.46M CAD
- New Condo Benchmark Price: Approximately 1.03M CAD
Why Did Ontario Drop More Significantly?
1. Too Rapid Price Increase During the Pandemic
During the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, Toronto housing prices have risen sharply in a short period.
Low interest rates + Government policy + The spread of remote work
Amidst exploding demand to buy homes due to factors such as, Toronto saw the largest increase in the nation I experienced it.
So, as interest rates rose and demand decreased, the possibility of it falling was just as great.
2. Leverage Problem
Here, leverage is simply put, it means investing using a loan.
When buying a house in Toronto more than one's own money there were many cases where people relied heavily on bank loans.
For example, if the house price is $1 million with your own money $200,000 + bank loan $800,000 there are many ways to buy a house.
This method yields large profits when housing prices rise, but, conversely, if interest rates rise or if housing prices fall, it becomes a significant burden.
Due to interest rate hikes as the monthly repayment amount increased rapidly some households there are even cases where it leads to mortgage delinquency.
What is the mortgage delinquency rate: Unable to repay the borrowed mortgage on time, it refers to the percentage of delays of 90 days or more.
Ontario's mortgage delinquency rate it is as high as the Canadian average.
Even looking at the data from the past three years the significant increase in the mortgage delinquency rate you can check.
In other words, not simply "the price dropped," the fact that the actual financial burden on households has increased this is a characteristic of the current bear market.
Why This Market Down is Different from Other Times
Even in the past, Toronto housing prices despite having undergone several adjustments. This time it is not just a simple price drop even household financial problems the point is that it is being seriously affected.
Past: Demand recovers after short-term correction → Price rebound
Now: High debt burden + interest rate hikes → Increased risk of bankruptcy
This is not only a simple market adjustment given that it could also affect the stability of the financial system this is an implication that is being viewed more seriously.
Short-term Perspective
The risk is high in the short term.
The Toronto market has high delinquency rates for the time being and there is a possibility that the recession will continue due to weakened investment sentiment.
Long-term Perspective
I believe there are still long-term opportunities.
Canada has a large influx of immigrants every year, and structurally, there is a shortage of housing supply.
Toronto and Vancouver are still because it is a center of economy/immigration, in the long term, it is highly likely that demand will recover.
Opportunities Can Be Created Here
Many people "The market is unstable, so I have to wait." you can think about it.
However, the real estate market the person who buys when everyone is anxious it takes the biggest profit.
- As investors pull out At the point when competition has significantly decreased
- Housing prices have fallen nearly 20% from their peak. A state where entry barriers have become relatively low
- In the long term, due to immigrant influx + supply shortage a recovery in demand is inevitable
So even though it may seem scary in the short term, in the long run, now could be the right time to buy.